Structural barriers like litigation and regulation are limiting new capacity in trucking, extending tight market conditions beyond typical cycles.
Triumph Financial CEO Aaron Graft said the current freight market cycle is shaped by structural barriers, unlike past upturns. Increased litigation, regulatory pressure, and a tight driver market are preventing capacity from flooding back, prolonging tight conditions.
Graft contrasted today’s environment with 2021, when cheap capacity dominated. Now, carriers face risks like $30 million verdicts even when paid $2,000 per freight move. Triumph’s revenue surged 49% in its latest quarter, reflecting the shift.
The CEO noted that while trucking remains cyclical, the current upcycle may have more durability due to these constraints. Data from Triumph’s factoring business, representing over 15% of the market, supports the view.