Prediction markets now assign a 38% chance of normal traffic flows resuming by July 1, down from earlier expectations.
Traders on prediction platform Kalshi have reduced the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to prewar traffic levels by July 1 to 38%. This follows Iran’s claim it could restore normal flows within a month of a peace deal with the U.S., a timeline met with skepticism in markets.
Prior to Wednesday’s reports, traders had assigned a 32% chance of normalization by July. Odds peaked at 50% over the weekend amid speculation of an imminent deal. Confidence remains higher for an August reopening, with a 60% probability, though this is still below earlier expectations.
The contract defines normal flows as a seven-day moving average of transit volumes exceeding 60, based on IMF PortWatch data. The White House has denied any framework agreement with Iran.