Prediction markets assign 70% odds of no dissents at the Fed’s June meeting, up from four in April’s vote.
Prediction market traders anticipate a return to consensus at the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, with 70% odds of zero dissents under new chair Kevin Warsh. This follows April’s vote, where four members dissented—the highest in over 30 years—over policy language and rate-cut signals.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, as policymakers assess inflation pressures from rising oil prices. April’s lone rate-cut dissent came from former governor Stephen Miran, while three others opposed dovish forward guidance.
Bank of America’s June survey shows 55% of fund managers expect a “hawkish hold” from the Fed, reflecting concerns over inflation persistence.