Prediction markets price 86% odds of Boeing aircraft orders and 81% chance of extended U.S.-China tariff truce during Trump’s Beijing visit.
Traders anticipate President Donald Trump will announce major Boeing aircraft purchases from China during his meeting with President Xi Jinping. Prediction market Kalshi assigns an 86% probability to the deal, with speculation pointing to a triple-digit billion-dollar commitment. Boeing shares rose nearly 2% ahead of the meeting on the expectation of a record order, though analysts caution details remain unclear.
An 81% chance of an extended U.S.-China tariff truce is also priced in, following October’s agreement to pause rare earth export controls and reduce fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%. Barclays suggested further tariff cuts could accompany aircraft, soybean, or oil purchases, though oil deals carry only a 24% probability. Soybean purchases are seen as more likely at 79%.
Traders also see a 69% chance of a U.S.-China Board of Trade announcement, a priority for U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The outcomes could reshape trade dynamics ahead of broader economic negotiations.