Prediction markets assign 60% odds of US unemployment hitting 8% before 2030 due to AI-driven labor displacement.
Traders on Kalshi forecast a 60% probability that US unemployment will exceed 8% by 2030, citing AI adoption as a key driver. The odds rise to 47% for unemployment surpassing 9%, a level last seen in severe recessions excluding the 2020 pandemic downturn.
Historically, US unemployment has only breached 9% three times since World War II. Current market expectations place a 16% chance of a recession in 2026, climbing to 45% in 2027. No contracts exist for 2028 or 2029, reflecting uncertainty beyond the near term.
Separately, traders assign a 78% likelihood that AI will be the primary cause of job cuts in May, pending data confirmation. Concerns align with warnings from global leaders about AI’s potential to disrupt labor markets.