Prediction markets assign 58% odds Anthropic’s Fable 5 model regains US access before July 1 following a government-directed suspension.
Anthropic disabled access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models Friday after the U.S. government ordered a suspension for foreign nationals. The company complied by restricting the models for all customers, including domestic users, just days after their launch.
Traders on Kalshi now price a 58% chance Fable 5 will be restored before July 1, rising to 74% by July 10. Polymarket traders see a 67% probability of reinstatement by the same date. The contracts hinge on whether general access is fully reinstated for U.S. customers.
The move follows a reported meeting between Anthropic and the Trump administration earlier this week, though no progress has been confirmed. The company previously clashed with the administration in March when the Department of Defense labeled it a supply chain risk.