Japan’s capital inflation data for May is forecast to remain subdued, with core CPI holding at a four-year low of 1.5% year-on-year.
Tokyo’s core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, is expected to print at 1.5% year-on-year in May, unchanged from April’s four-year low. The reading would mark the second consecutive month below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reflecting persistent disinflationary pressures.
Analysts cite offsetting forces shaping the print: expiring utility subsidies and higher taxi fares may lift prices modestly, while falling energy and food costs, alongside sustained petrol subsidies, are seen capping gains. The core-core index, stripping out fresh food and energy, is projected to hold at 1.9%, while headline CPI is forecast to edge up to 1.6% from 1.5%.
Markets monitor Tokyo CPI as an early indicator of national inflation trends, with Japan’s broader price data typically released three weeks later.