Japan’s key inflation gauge is forecast to accelerate for the first time in eight months amid higher energy prices and supply disruptions.
Tokyo’s core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, is expected to climb 1.6% year-on-year in June, up from 1.3% in May, marking its first acceleration in eight months. The rise is driven by higher energy costs and supply chain pressures linked to Middle East tensions following the US-Iran conflict.
The broader CPI is projected to increase 1.7%, the highest since December’s 2.0% print, while the core-core measure, which also excludes energy, is seen rising to 1.8% from 1.6%. Inflation had previously fallen sharply from a peak of 3.6% in May 2025.
Government measures, including a gasoline price cap near 170 yen per litre, are expected to soften the impact but may not fully offset rising import costs. National CPI data for June will follow in about three weeks.