The early reports this morning suggest that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a one-page memorandum aimed at ending the war — or at least establishing another ceasefire framework.
The agreement would reportedly serve as the foundation for more detailed nuclear negotiations going forward, including discussions surrounding future uranium enrichment limits, which was the core issue that sparked the conflict in the first place
That said, Iranian sources continue to push back on the headlines, arguing that many of the published details reflect more of a U.S. wish list than the actual state of negotiations behind closed doors. Still, even the perception of a path toward ending the conflict has major market implications. Most notably, it raises the likelihood that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could eventually be lifted, allowing oil flows to normalize.
Traders are clearly pricing in that possibility. Brent crude is down roughly -9.65%, while WTI crude for both the June and July contracts is lower by about -10%, with June trading near $91.77 and July near $88.58. The decline in energy prices comes after a sharp wartime surge.