The US Dollar Index trades just above 99.00 on Thursday, unchanged on the session across a range of less than a fifth of a point.
That sits roughly 2.6% beneath the June peak just under 102.00 and beneath a rolling 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 100.00 and a flat 200-day near 99.75
Three policymakers reached the wires from Jackson Hole before the New York open, two of them scored hawkish on the calendar, and none of them moved the basket a tick. Sold on the hawkish outcome, sold on the dovish one The July 29 decision was the most hawkish result of this chairmanship, a fifth consecutive hold decided nine to three with the first dissents of the term, all of them from regional presidents wanting an immediate quarter point. That is the textbook currency-positive surprise.
The index broke close to 1.7 points in the session that followed, from just beneath 101.50 into the 99.75 area, by a wide margin the largest daily move on the summer window, and it has not taken any of it back in the month since. The August 19 leg went the other way and produced the same result. The Treasury doubled the ceiling on its long-end buyback operations, the thirty-year gave back more than nine basis points, and the index broke again to just above 98.50 the following day, its weakest since May.