The Likelihood of a Bear Market Under President Donald Trump in 2026 Is Not Very High — but Investors Aren’t in the Clear Yet When repercussions from the Iran war sent the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) down 9% earlier this year, investors feared the onset of a bear market.
But the selloff didn’t last long, and the benchmark index has recovered to all-time highs
People betting on the prediction market platform Kalshi see only a moderate chance of a bear market this year. But that doesn’t mean investors should breathe a sigh of relief. They aren’t in the clear just yet.
The market still faces numerous hurdles this year As of Monday morning, the S&P 500 is sitting right around 7,400, which would be a new all-time high. If the market entered a bear market from here — in other words, a 20% decline from its highs — that would mean falling to a level of slightly below 5,900. Based on recent price action, bettors on Kalshi see a 20% likelihood that the S&P 500 will fall into a bear market this year, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran and other Middle Eastern countries have settled down in recent weeks — although the situation remains far from resolved.