The Fed’s inflation tracker just flashed a warning: April and quarterly forecasts show prices are set to rise more Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation tracker just flashed another warning sign for the U.S. economy, and it could spell more financial pain ahead
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in late April shows inflation pressures remaining stubbornly elevated, while new quarterly forecasts suggest that Americans may continue facing higher prices, slower growth and elevated borrowing costs for months to come (1). Top Picks – – – The IRS usually taxes gold as a collectible — but this little-known strategy lets you hold physical bullion tax-free.
Get your free guide from Priority Gold At the center of the concern is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation gauge that largely informs interest rates (2). With a year-over-year increase of 3.5% as of March 2026, the last month for which data is available, it hasn’t reached the heights of the post-pandemic peak in 2022 — but it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, the core PCE price index — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — remains persistently high at 3.2% (3), reinforcing fears that inflation is becoming embedded in the broader economy.