Aluminium price projections lowered to $3,378 in 2026 and $3,281 in 2027 due to improving supply and softer demand.
TD Securities has reduced its aluminium price outlook, citing faster smelter ramp-ups in the Middle East, increased Indonesian supply, and weaker demand. The firm now expects prices to average $3,378 per tonne in 2026 and $3,281 in 2027, down 5.0% and 9.8% from prior forecasts.
The revised outlook reflects smaller deficits of 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 and 234 thousand tonnes in 2027, compared to earlier expectations of 2.5-3.0 million and 1.0-1.5 million tonne shortfalls. The forward curve has shifted from backwardation to contango, signaling improved near-term supply conditions.
Despite the downgrade, TD Securities does not anticipate a major price rout, as the market is projected to remain in deficit over the next 18 months. Risks include potential supply shortfalls from Indonesia and the Middle East.