There is a certain honesty to a currency with nothing to say for itself, and the Swiss Franc spent Tuesday doing exactly that.
With not one Swiss data release on the calendar this week, the Franc has no story of its own, leaving USD/CHF to drift on whatever the Dollar side of the tape serves up
The pair ground fractionally higher, extending a 2026 recovery off April’s 14-year low near 0.7750 that has been shallow and wholly borrowed from abroad. Borrowed direction from the Fed The only real pulse in USD/CHF this week comes from across the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has spent a month convincing markets it is likelier to hike than cut: June’s hold was a fourth straight, but the projections dropped the old easing bias and left half the committee pencilling in a 2026 hike, keeping the Dollar firm.
The awkward part for Dollar bulls is that the data has begun to undercut the rhetoric. Softer US labour readings have trimmed the odds of another hike, and CME FedWatch now prices the July 29 meeting as a hold with better than seven-in-ten confidence, up from nearer three-in-five a fortnight ago. Fed speakers dot the week, tested against a cooling jobs picture.