Quick Read – Hot IPOs like the anticipated SpaceX (SPCX) average a 55% peak-to-trough drawdown before delivering a tepid 14% full-year return for day-one buyers. – Meta (META) clawed back a 54% post-IPO crash for a 393% decade gain, but Snap (SNAP) dropped 80% from its debut and…
ill hasn’t recovered nine years later. – Austin Hankwitz recommends waiting 3 to 4 months after debut for the lockup-driven drop, then dollar-cost averaging only if you hold deep conviction in the business. – Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Meta didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today
For much of the past month, Wall Street has been chanting the same three letters: SPCX, the Nasdaq ticker SpaceX intends to use when it begins trading on June 12, 2026. Retail investors have piled into the Destiny Tech100 vehicle, prediction markets have lit up, and r/wallstreetbets has turned a single post titled “$8 to $2500 while shitting” into a 4,298-upvote shrine to opening-day euphoria. But the long memory of the IPO market keeps tolling the same warning bell.
The hottest debuts of the last decade have rarely behaved themselves in year one, and a podcast clip this week put the pattern into numbers that should make every IPO-day buyer pause. On a recent Rich Habits Podcast episode, host Austin Hankwitz crunched the hottest IPOs of the last 10 to 15 years and produced a stat that cuts against the current mood. The average 12-month return was roughly 14%.