70% of bear market signals triggered for S&P 500
The S&P 500 has triggered 70% of the signals that historically precede a bear market peak. The gap between the index’s best and worst performers is now near levels last seen during the pandemic.
The IT sector spread is at its widest since February 2000, with high-P/E stocks significantly outperforming low-P/E stocks. Megacap tech and AI names have driven most of the index’s roughly 9% year-to-date gain.
The S&P 500 forward P/E has compressed to 20.77 from 22.18 at the start of the year as earnings estimates outpace price gains. A year-end target of 7,100 implies meaningful downside from current levels.