First-quarter growth outpaced advance estimates and consensus forecasts as trade ministry warns of Middle East conflict risks.
Singapore’s economy expanded 6.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, exceeding the advance estimate of 4.6% and the Reuters poll consensus of 5.1%. The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth was 1.0%, reversing an earlier estimate of a 0.3% contraction.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry maintained its full-year 2026 growth forecast at 2.0% to 4.0% but highlighted heightened downside risks from the Middle East conflict, which has weakened external demand. Non-oil domestic exports are projected to grow 3.0% to 5.0% this year.
Core inflation reached 1.7% year-on-year in March, with April data due later this week. The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy in April, citing inflation risks from the Iran war, and raised its inflation forecast to 1.5% to 2.5% from 1.0% to 2.0% previously.