Analysts slash probability of crypto legislation clearing Congress by 2026 amid unresolved disputes and tight legislative timelines.
The CLARITY Act will not receive a final Senate vote before the summer recess, Senate leadership confirmed. The bill aims to establish federal oversight for digital assets but faces disputes over stablecoin rewards and government ethics provisions, delaying progress.
Earlier estimates placed the bill’s 2026 passage odds at 50%, but Galaxy Research now pegs the probability at 30%. Lawmakers released an updated draft with stronger customer protections, yet key disagreements persist. The legislative calendar tightens ahead of the November elections.
Markets have not reacted sharply, as the delay aligns with expectations of prolonged regulatory uncertainty in the crypto sector.