A sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could weaken oil prices and lift the Swedish krona against the Norwegian krone, analysts note.
The Swedish krona may strengthen significantly against the Norwegian krone if the Strait of Hormuz reopens sustainably, according to analysis. Lower oil prices would reduce rate hike expectations for Sweden’s Riksbank while weighing on Norway’s oil-sensitive krone.
Data shows the Norwegian krone reacts more strongly to oil price movements than the Swedish krona. Since the start of the war, NOK has been the top G10 performer, while SEK has lost ground. Sweden’s energy import dependence is just -1.8% of total exports, compared to Norway’s 57%.
A decline in oil prices would hurt NOK more than SEK, as Norway’s currency is more exposed to energy market shifts. The Riksbank’s rate expectations are also more responsive to oil shocks than Norges Bank’s.