Analysts expect the CBR to maintain rates despite political pressure, citing rising inflation expectations and commodity prices.
Russia’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate at 14.25% later today, resisting calls for a cut amid surging inflation expectations and higher oil and commodity prices. The majority consensus aligns with this view, though some analysts advocate for a symbolic 25-basis-point reduction.
Recent data shows industrial output grew just 0.6% year-over-year in June and 0.4% in the first half of 2024, signaling economic slowdown. Political pressure, including suspended government bond auctions and public statements from President Vladimir Putin, has intensified calls for easing, but inflation risks remain a dominant concern.
The decision is unlikely to significantly impact managed USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates in the near term, as market focus remains on inflation dynamics and external economic factors.