Markets price nearly 16bps of tightening for July and three hikes by year-end amid persistent inflation concerns.
New Zealand’s central bank is poised to hold rates steady this week but may signal a July hike as inflation pressures linger. Market pricing reflects a near 16bps probability of a move next month, with three full hikes expected by December.
The RBNZ previously indicated that decisive action would be needed if medium-term inflation fails to ease. Governor Breman has emphasized readiness to tighten further to anchor inflation at the 2% target, citing risks of persistent price pressures.
Rate markets are fully pricing a hawkish shift, with traders closely watching this week’s guidance for confirmation of a July move.