The RBNZ will announce its interest rate decision during the New Zealand trading day (10:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM NZT Wednesday).
While the consensus leans toward a 25 basis point hike, the outcome is far from certain
Most economists view the decision as a genuine coin flip between leaving the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% and delivering a 25 basis point “insurance” hike to 2.50%. Recall that the May meeting ended in a 3-3 split, with Governor Breman casting the deciding vote to keep rates unchanged. At that meeting, the RBNZ’s projections pointed to 50-75 basis points of additional tightening by the end of 2026.
However, the case for another hike has weakened since then. Those forecasts assumed oil prices would remain in the $95-$105 per barrel range, while crude has since fallen to around $65 following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, easing one of the central bank’s key inflation concerns. Economists remain divided.