Reuters survey finds 68 of 72 economists expect no rate change despite global tightening trends amid oil-price pressures.
The Reserve Bank of India is poised to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Of 72 respondents, 68 predict no change, reflecting India’s status as an outlier among central banks that have hiked rates in response to the Iran war-driven oil shock.
Global peers, including those in Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia, have raised rates in recent months. India’s divergence has left the rupee vulnerable, with swap markets pricing in 75 basis points of tightening over the next year as wholesale inflation hits 9.87%, signaling potential future CPI pressure.
While core inflation remains contained, economists warn that delaying hikes could expose the rupee and rate-sensitive assets to renewed oil-driven volatility. The RBI has relied on inflows, including nearly $40 billion attracted by tax incentives and dollar deposit sweeteners, to defend the currency.