All 37 economists polled expect no change Tuesday, with markets scrutinizing inflation language and future hike signals.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% during Tuesday’s meeting, as unanimous economist forecasts remove surprise potential. Attention will instead center on the accompanying statement’s tone regarding inflation and the central bank’s hiking bias, which could sway the Australian dollar’s trajectory.
Economists are split on whether the pause will extend through December, with 27 of 36 polled by Reuters anticipating no change by year-end. The RBA has raised rates by 75 basis points since February, fully reversing last year’s easing, while annual inflation stands at 4.0%. Oil price volatility, driven by Middle East supply risks, remains a key uncertainty for Australia’s inflation outlook.
Markets will also parse the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy for clues on the timing of any future moves. Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference may provide further guidance, with the AUD/USD pair already retreating from its 100-day moving average near 0.70505.