A back-to-back hike would extend the Australian dollar’s rate advantage and keep front-end yields elevated, while any hint that November is the last move could trigger a pullback in both.
Fuel is the key transmission channel, so oil prices remain central to the outlook: further crude gains would deepen the pass-through into services and strengthen calls for more tightening
Australian equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as property and consumer discretionary, face added pressure if markets begin to price a longer hiking path. — Earlier: ING lifts AUD/USD target to 0.71 as it backs a 25bp RBA hike next week — Fuel is no longer just a petrol-station problem for Australia’s inflation, and Natixis expects the RBA to respond again next week. Summary: September CPI rose about 0.8% m/m and 4.3% y/y, above forecasts of 0.7% and 4.2% Energy added about 0.3 points to the monthly rise, while travel contributed around 0.43 points, its most since December 2025 Garcia Herrero sees the energy shock passing through to the broader basket The Q3 trimmed mean edged up to about 3.7%, diverging from the RBA’s August forecast of a peak in Q2 Hauser and Bullock comments reinforce the RBA’s low tolerance for persistent inflation Natixis expects a back-to-back hike on 3 November, with later decisions highly data dependent Australia’s September inflation data delivered a sharp upside surprise that is likely to push the Reserve Bank of Australia into a back-to-back rate hike at its meeting on Tuesday, 3 November. That is the view of Alicia Garcia Herrero , chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and one of the more closely followed analysts of the RBA.
Headline consumer prices rose about 0.8% in September from August and around 4.3% from a year earlier, both ahead of consensus forecasts of 0.7% and 4.2%. Garcia Herrero said the print surprised the market as well as the central bank. The detail is what concerns her most.