Traders now assign a 26% chance the $8 billion media merger collapses by July 2027 amid legal challenges from 12 states.
Prediction market traders have lowered the probability that Paramount will complete its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery to 74% by July 2027. The shift follows a lawsuit filed by California and 11 other states on July 13 to block the deal, which previously had over 80% odds of success.
The likelihood of the merger succeeding dropped to 66% on July 24 after Paramount delayed the acquisition to 2027. A federal judge set a March 2027 trial date for the states’ lawsuit, with the merger’s termination date extending to June 4, 2027 if regulatory hurdles remain. Paramount stated it will not finalize the deal until the court rules or June 1, 2027, whichever comes first.
On Polymarket, traders see a 23% chance no acquisition will succeed by June 30, 2027, aligning closely with Kalshi’s 22% odds of failure.