Polymarket bettors price a 3% chance of a margin call for MSTR amid $8.17 billion debt and BTC’s 26% YTD decline.
Prediction markets estimate only a 3% probability MicroStrategy (MSTR) will face a margin call, despite holding $8.17 billion in long-term debt and bitcoin (BTC) declining 26% year-to-date. The company’s stock traded at $94.85 Monday, reflecting broader skepticism about near-term liquidity risks.
Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, with 13 Buy ratings and an average price target of $304, though insider selling and a 36-point sentiment drop in 30 days signal caution. BTC’s recent trade at $64,825.78, down 44.74% over the past year, underscores the volatility impacting MicroStrategy’s bitcoin-backed balance sheet.
Bettors also price a 37% chance MSTR will be removed from the MSCI index by year-end, a move that could trigger passive-fund outflows. The company reported a $14.46 billion unrealized bitcoin loss in Q1 2026 under fair-value accounting rules, posting an EPS of -$38.25.