Traders on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, are betting that Anthropic’s suspended Claude Fable 5 model will stay offline for US customers well into the summer.
The standout figure is not the headline number but how far traders have pushed their expectations out
The market gives just a 6% chance that access is restored today, and even by 1 July, almost three weeks after the ban, the implied probability sits at only 59%. That leaves a 41% chance the model remains unavailable into July, hardly the picture of a quick resolution. The near-term contracts have collapsed in recent trading.
The odds of restoration by 19 June fell 23%, while bets on 26 June dropped 31%, with money instead flowing into later dates. Only the 1 July contract rose, up 13%, confirming that traders see the standoff dragging on rather than ending imminently. The market has turned over $541,776 in volume.