A blockchain analytics firm called Bubblemaps, in an investigation believes are connected — accounts that racked up more than $2.4 million wagering on U.S. military outcomes in the Iran conflict, with a 98% success rate across upward of 80 bets.
Every one of the accounts was opened within days of America’s first assault on Iran in late February, and each went on to correctly call pivotal moments: when U.S. strikes would occur, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be removed from power, and when a ceasefire would be declared
Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the pattern could not be explained by luck alone. “This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman said. On the rare occasions when the accounts did lose, the amounts were minimal — never more than a few hundred dollars — and Bubblemaps argues those losing bets were deliberate, designed to throw off anyone scrutinizing the accounts’ activity, according to Decrypt. According to Decrypt, Bubblemaps traced the proceeds moving out through Bybit, a Dubai-headquartered crypto exchange, with additional activity recorded at Binance and HTX.
The accounts have no confirmed link to the U.S. government. Vaiman told Decrypt that aside from the accounts’ focus on U.S. military markets and one account name — “whopperlover” — there is no direct evidence the users are American. “It could still be anyone,” he said. Bubblemaps is not alone in flagging suspicious activity.