Polymarket Faces Fresh Insider Trading Scrutiny After 152 Wallets Allegedly Made $8 Million Betting on US Military Markets: Report Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below.
Prediction platform Polymarket is facing renewed scrutiny over suspected insider trading after research flagged more than 150 wallets that allegedly profited from bets tied to confidential U.S. military information
The nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggested on Thursday that insider trading on military information may be happening on the prediction market. ACDC’s study identified “long-shot” bets, defined as wagers of at least $2,500 placed within an hour on an outcome with odds of 35% or less. ACDC identified 556 wallets, known as “Orcas,” that showed a pattern of opening an account, placing a successful long-shot bet, and then often cashing out and disappearing.
Among these, 152 wallets, which made collective earnings of $8 million with a win rate of 97.2%, were particularly successful in military and defense markets. ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi cautioned that unusual betting activity on Polymarket is highly observable and often copied by big traders and bots. “It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren’t monitoring these markets,” he said. Polymarket and the Department of Defense did not immediately respond to Benzinga’s request for comments.