Commerzbank analysts expect Poland’s central bank to hold rates at 3.75% amid near-zero inflation momentum and easing discussions.
Poland’s National Bank (NBP) is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% in its July decision, with markets already pricing in this outcome. Disinflationary pressures, driven by energy and food prices, have pushed headline CPI to 2.5% year-on-year in June, below consensus, while month-on-month price changes turned negative after seasonal adjustments.
Just a month ago, forward-rate agreements (FRAs) had priced in potential rate hikes for late 2026, but these bets have since been unwound. Analysts now discuss the possibility of rate cuts as early as Q4 2024, with some suggesting March 2027 as a plausible start date for easing. The shift in narrative has eroded the Polish zloty’s (PLN) carry appeal, raising expectations of underperformance against the Czech koruna (CZK).
The NBP’s forward guidance will be closely watched, as recent data has eliminated the case for further tightening. The central bank’s communication may signal whether easing discussions gain traction in the coming months.