Analyst values Tesla at $400 per share excluding its humanoid robot business, implying Optimus is effectively free at current levels.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter argues Tesla shares near $420 include the company’s Optimus robot business at no additional cost. A discounted cash flow analysis values Tesla at $400 per share, excluding Optimus and other transformational products like inference-as-a-service.
The updated model breaks Tesla into 17 product lines, including vehicles, energy storage, and robotaxis, but omits Optimus due to valuation challenges. Potter suggests the robot could eventually surpass Tesla’s other businesses in value but refrains from quantifying it in the current analysis.
Potter maintained a $500 price target on Tesla, unchanged from his prior note, while emphasizing the potential long-term impact of Optimus on global labor markets and GDP.