ING economists warn of rising inflation and delayed reforms pressuring the PHP amid El Niño and oil price risks.
The Philippine peso faces renewed pressure as inflation risks resurface, driven by recovering oil prices and a potential El Niño-induced food-price shock. Economists highlight global rice and fertilizer price increases as additional headwinds for the import-dependent economy.
ING forecasts an additional 50 basis points of monetary tightening in 2026 to counter persistent inflation. However, political uncertainty threatens to delay structural reforms, further weighing on growth and the currency.
El Niño concerns and geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran dynamics, are exacerbating supply chain disruptions, amplifying inflationary pressures on the peso.