OpenAI is going public as the most expensive AI company in its peer group—not by market cap, but by what investors are paying for each unit of business quality, according to our latest research.
The company’s upcoming disclosures will test whether that premium is justified or just momentum
OpenAI’s path to profitability rests on a contract with an expiration date. In April, it renegotiated its revenue-share agreement with Microsoft, capping payments at $38 billion through 2030 and saving an estimated $70 to $97 billion. Without that cap, positive free cash flow is not possible.
Investors must price the listing based on an agreement whose most consequential provisions haven’t been written. The company’s revenue is real, but the economics are broken. Q1 revenue hit $5.7 billion, yet at a negative 122% adjusted operating margin, OpenAI spent $2.22 for every dollar earned.