The group plans to continue unwinding voluntary cuts, though market focus shifts to compliance and demand amid falling crude prices.
OPEC+ is expected to increase its oil output quotas for August by 188K barrels per day, continuing a gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts. The decision will be finalized during a meeting scheduled for Sunday, maintaining the group’s pace of restoring previous reductions over the coming months.
Crude oil prices have dropped to $68.22, a cycle low last seen before the Iran conflict escalated in late February, when WTI settled at $67.28. Despite the decline in crude, retail gasoline prices remain elevated, with the national average at $3.84 per gallon compared to $2.98 at the start of the conflict.
Market attention will likely shift toward member compliance, particularly from Iraq and Kazakhstan, as well as global demand expectations and geopolitical risks. The move follows persistent calls for lower gasoline prices at the retail level, which remain above the $3.11 average seen at the end of the previous administration.