The producer group reduced its 2026 demand outlook by 210,000 bpd due to geopolitical tensions and Hormuz closure impacts.
OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day, down from 1.38 million bpd, citing the economic fallout from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The revision marks a 210,000 bpd reduction from its previous estimate.
The Q2 2026 demand estimate was further cut by 500,000 bpd to 104.57 million bpd, following a similar reduction in last month’s report. OPEC+ crude output fell 1.74 million bpd in April to 33.19 million bpd, as the Hormuz closure disrupted planned production increases.
OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth forecast by 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd, anticipating a rebound in consumption once current disruptions ease. The group’s outlook now aligns more closely with other major forecasters, including the International Energy Agency.