Over 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude have transited the Strait despite Tehran’s closure threats, easing supply concerns.
Oil markets initially braced for a historic supply shock after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with forecasts of lost exports reaching 12 million to 15 million barrels per day. Brent crude surged to nearly $120 in early March amid fears of $200 oil, but prices have since fallen below $90 as evidence mounts of continued shipments.
Traders and shippers report that tankers have evaded Iranian threats, with some escaping undetected due to U.S. satellite restrictions and location spoofing. Data firm Kpler estimates 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude have passed through the strait and Gulf of Oman since the crisis began, while U.S. officials claim over 100 million barrels transited under a covert mission.
The discrepancy between initial projections and actual flows has wrongfooted bulls, with prices retreating despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The market now reassesses supply risks as evidence of resilient exports emerges.