Analysts say inventory deficits, high shipping costs, and OPEC+ policy may keep Brent and WTI above pre-war levels for years.
Brent crude at $83.17 and WTI at $80.75 remain significantly above pre-war levels of $72.48 and $67.02, respectively. A durable return to $67 may take years due to a 1 billion-barrel inventory deficit and elevated shipping insurance costs, which are unlikely to normalize for at least three to six months.
Shipping insurance, currently ten times pre-war rates, will ease post-deal but won’t fully revert soon. Analysts highlight OPEC+, particularly Saudi Arabia, as the key supply-side variable, with expectations of a rapid production increase to rebuild inventories and address political pressure.
A sustained oversupply period, requiring at least a year, would be necessary to push prices toward the $60s. The market’s focus has shifted from ships exiting the Gulf to those returning to load, signaling the difference between a temporary and lasting resolution.