Brent crude jumped from $60 to near 2022 peaks after Iran conflict disrupted 1 billion barrels of supply in H1 2026.
Oil markets reversed course in the first half of 2026 as the Iran war triggered the largest energy supply shock on record. Brent futures, which began the year at $60 per barrel, surged to levels last seen in 2022, defying expectations of a multibillion-barrel glut. WTI crude followed a similar trajectory, starting at $57 before rising sharply amid geopolitical turmoil.
Analysts had anticipated oversupply after OPEC+ unwound production cuts in late 2025, with non-U.S. producers also increasing output. Sea-bound oil volumes reached record highs before the Iran conflict disrupted exports, forcing traders to abandon bearish forecasts. The unexpected supply shock upended consensus views of a persistently weak market.
With Persian Gulf exports stabilizing as the war winds down, markets have entered a period of uneasy calm. Macquarie strategists noted that while daily volatility has subsided, uncertainty remains elevated for the second half of 2026. Traders now face a market where prior assumptions no longer apply, setting the stage for potential surprises.