Fading optimism over a US-Iran agreement keeps supply risks elevated, supporting higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions.
Oil prices strengthened as expectations for a US-Iran deal waned, leaving supply disruptions unaddressed. The market remains sensitive to headlines, with optimism repeatedly fading after initial progress in negotiations.
Iraq’s oil shipments reached around 2m barrels per day in August, down from 3.4m b/d before regional conflicts disrupted flows. Despite ongoing turbulence, oil continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz, though tight refined product stocks and geopolitical risks support upside pressure.
Analysts note that risks remain skewed higher for oil prices as winter demand approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.