CENTCOM confirms the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but barrel flows fall to 33% of pre-war volumes, sustaining risk premiums in crude markets.
The Strait of Hormuz remains open after 11 nights of U.S. strikes on Iran, yet oil flows have collapsed to roughly a third of pre-war levels, according to CENTCOM data. This aligns with recent estimates driving Brent and WTI higher, as traders focus on reduced throughput rather than the strait’s operational status.
CENTCOM’s vessel counts differ from commercial-tracker data, suggesting a methodological gap. The command appears to tally only escorted transits, not total AIS-tracked traffic, leaving the actual barrel flow as the key metric for markets. Prior to the conflict, the strait handled about 15 million barrels daily.
Oil prices extended gains to a five-week high amid persistent Houthi blockade threats and escalating Iran-U.S. tensions. Saudi crude tankers have been forced to reroute, further tightening supply expectations.