Geopolitical tensions and reduced speculative positions support oil, while US rig activity rises and exports stay elevated.
Oil prices remain supported by ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz amid stalled US-Iran negotiations. While diplomatic efforts continue, significant hurdles persist before any broader agreement, keeping supply risks in focus.
Speculative positioning turned cautious last week, with money managers cutting net long positions in NYMEX WTI by 7,257 lots to 101,050 and ICE Brent by 20,361 lots to 164,722. This marks a second consecutive weekly decline in bullish bets.
US oil activity continues to recover, with the rig count rising by three to 454, the highest since May 2025. Crude exports remain elevated as buyers seek alternative supply sources, though recent increases rely partly on inventory drawdowns.