Falling crude prices reflect market expectations of a supply glut rather than confirmed oversupply, Commerzbank analysts say.
Oil prices declined as optimism over potential US-Iran talks and a Strait of Hormuz reopening fueled expectations of increased supply. The drop contrasts with underlying data showing stable production in June, according to market analysis.
The EIA is expected to slightly raise its oil supply forecasts for the second half of the year, while OPEC+ may face pressure to adjust quotas. Analysts note the price trend does not align with available supply evidence, suggesting sentiment-driven moves.
Uncertainty in the region is likely to keep prices volatile as markets react to geopolitical developments. No immediate OPEC+ quota increase is expected, but partial adjustments remain possible.