Quick Read – Nvidia (NVDA) posted Q1 revenue of $81.62B vs. $78.86B estimated with Data Center revenue nearly doubling, while Gavin Baker projects the company’s chip sales could reach $2 trillion to $3 trillion by 2027 from roughly $215B in sales last year.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) holds 72% of the leading-edge foundry market and is investing $31.28B for advanced technology capacity plus up to $20B in Arizona expansion, with new N3 fabs hitting volume in the first half of 2027 and the second half of 2027 respectively. – Taiwan Semiconductor’s 2-3 year fab construction cycle acts as the critical constraint on Nvidia’s growth trajectory, forcing hyperscalers to commit capital against actual silicon delivery windows rather than speculative demand, which prevents AI capex from overheating into bubble territory. – The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks
Get them here FREE. Gavin Baker, the tech investor whose track record gives him an audience whenever he sits down with Patrick O’Shaughnessy, floated a number on a recent podcast that should make anyone modeling NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) future do a double-take. NVIDIA’s chip sales, he argued, could grow to $2 trillion, possibly $2.5 trillion, possibly $3 trillion by 2027.
The company sold roughly $215 billion in chips last year. The high end of Baker’s scenario is roughly a 10x increase. The interesting part is what Baker thinks is preventing it.