Rabobank’s FX Strategy team notes that NOK/SEK has gained around 11% year-to-date as the Norwegian central bank turned more hawkish while the Riksbank stayed on hold.
They highlight sticky inflation and Norway’s energy-exporter status as supportive for the Norwegian Krone
The bank prefers buying NOK/SEK on dips and targets 1.02 over a three-month horizon. Norwegian Krone supported by hawkish Norges Bank “At the same time, the Norges Bank swung from a dovish tone at the end of last year to a more hawkish stance based on domestically driven sticky inflationary pressure.” “This triggered a Norges Bank rate hike last week on the same day that the Riksbank maintained steady policy.” “While fiscal policy will help support consumption in Sweden and potentially lift underlying inflation pressures, sticky inflation has been a theme in Norway for a while.” “In the year to date, NOK/SEK has risen around 11%, and we see the potential for further upside in the months ahead.” “We favour buying NOK/SEK on dips and look for a move towards the 1.02 level on a 3-month view.” Author