US investors will watch on Friday a labor market report that is far less familiar than the monthly jobs release but has gained considerable importance following the spectacular revisions of recent years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to the payroll employment series for the twelve months ending March at 14:00 GMT
Behind its particularly technical name, the Preliminary Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Benchmark Revision answers a relatively simple question: Has the number of payroll jobs reported month after month by US statisticians accurately reflected the reality of the labor market? The answer could have implications well beyond the statistics themselves. Another large downward revision would reinforce the view that the US labor market slowdown has been deeper than previously thought, while an upward revision could instead show that job creation has been underestimated.
What is the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision? The monthly US employment report relies, among other sources, on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects data from businesses and government agencies to estimate the number of payroll employees in the United States (US). Like any survey based on a sample, however, it is subject to a margin of error.