What’s expected: Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K) September +29K August +133K July -10K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior Participation rate 61.8% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.6% Avg hourly earnings…
y exp +2.9% y/y vs +3.0% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior October jobs so far: ADP employment report +86K vs +67K expected and +86K prior ISM services employment 51.4 vs 50.1 prior ISM manufacturing employment 52.4 vs 52.0 exp and 52.7 prior Challenger Job Cuts 43,994 vs 43,281 prior Philly employment +9.1 vs +11.8 prior Empire employment +10.3 vs +10.6 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 194K vs 196K last month Revelio Labs +26K vs +68K prior There is a positive skew in the numbers releaed so far, including ADP and both ISM reports. Yesterday’s report from Revelio Labs got some attention as a weak point
The market pricing for a December rate hike is down to 73% in light of the equity market volatility and the big question remains: What will Trump do in the Iran war. That and the outlook for AI with Anthropic’s IPO upcoming are the key variables right now. S&P 500 futures are slightly higher but they were higher yesterday before the wheels fell off.
The US dollar is doing better on safe haven flows and a strong jobs report would add to the dollar bid and also get the market worrying about a scenario where the Fed has to hike even as the AI trade legs lower. BMO notes that “41% of previous unemployment prints for October have been lower-than-expected, 22% have been higher-than-estimates, and 37% have matched the consensus,” while there is a modest negative skew versus expectations on the headline number. am Button