Nomura anticipates Sweden’s central bank will raise rates in March 2027 due to persistent inflation pressures and robust economic growth.
Nomura’s European economics team now expects the Riksbank to hike its policy rate to 2.00% by Q4 2027, up from the current 1.75%. The shift follows the bank’s growing vigilance over upside inflation risks despite low headline CPIF inflation.
The Riksbank’s June projection showed the policy rate reaching 1.82% in Q4 2026, revised up from 1.77% in March. Nomura forecasts CPIF ex-energy inflation will accelerate to 2.4% in Q2 2027, driven by base effects from a 2026 VAT cut.
While policymakers may look past temporary tax measures, Nomura believes above-target inflation and strong growth could prompt a March 2027 hike. The bank maintains no change in rates for 2026.