NZD/USD heads into the release around 0.57, having recovered part of its slide to a mid-October low, its weakest level since April 2025.
A headline print at or above 3.9%, or firmer core readings, would likely lock in hike pricing and support the kiwi
A result near 3.7% could trim those odds at the margin without derailing them. Beyond today’s number, oil remains the dominant driver: with crude elevated and the currency weaker, imported energy costs are set to keep New Zealand’s inflation outlook, and the RBNZ’s tightening bias, tilted to the upside into year-end. New Zealand’s Q3 inflation is expected to ease only briefly, with oil and a softer currency already lining up a fourth-quarter rebound that keeps the RBNZ on a hiking path.
Summary: Q3 CPI is due from Statistics NZ at 10:45am Wellington time on Thursday Consensus sees annual inflation at 3.8%, down from 4.1%, against the RBNZ’s 3.9% projection; quarterly CPI is seen at 0.8%, down from 1.5% Forecasts range from 3.7% (Westpac) to 4.0%, with ANZ at 3.8% and BNZ at 3.9% Lower average fuel prices drive the Q3 easing, partly offset by council rates, building costs and food Swaps price around an 80% chance of a 25bp hike to 3.00% on October 28 Renewed Middle East hostilities and a weaker NZD point to a Q4 rebound, with some forecasts as high as 4.7% New Zealand’s third-quarter consumer price index, due from Statistics NZ at 10:45am Wellington time on Thursday, is expected to show annual inflation easing to 3.8% from 4.1% in the June quarter, according to the median of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would leave inflation well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1% to 3% target band, and only marginally below the central bank’s own 3.9% projection from its September Monetary Policy Statement. On a quarterly basis, prices are forecast to rise 0.8%.