Wolfe Research projects Nebius Group’s annual recurring revenue will reach $41 billion by 2030, driven by 5 GW of contracted power and AI cloud demand.
Nebius Group’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) is projected to grow nearly tenfold to $41 billion by 2030, up from a modeled $4.26 billion in Q3 2026. Wolfe Research cites the company’s 5 GW contracted power pipeline as the key driver, supported by $17 billion and $27 billion deals with Microsoft and Meta, respectively.
Customer prepayments cover 50 to 60 percent of Nebius’s buildout costs, while the company posted a 50% EBITDA margin in Q2 for its AI cloud segment. Analysts highlight the challenge of sustaining margins while scaling deployments to over 1 GW annually starting in 2027.
Power access is emerging as a critical financial asset, with demand for computing capacity shifting toward electricity availability and data-center capacity. Nebius’s contracted power targets have risen to 5 GW by year-end 2026, up from over 4 GW previously.